By Simon Bond

As each new Trump adviser gets appointed I trawl through the news, historical information and interviews in order to study the last 12 months of their utterances for clues as to what may lie ahead. And it is very revealing, when we in markets continually ask ourselves, "Where will growth come from?" Any clues about the future by reading about the past can be very rewarding.

I personally think that if investors closely study the appointees, their history and their ideals more so than the appointer (whom we already know a great deal about) a very clear picture will emerge about the future of The United States and policy thoughts.

Steven Bannon

Consider that Trump’s senior adviser, Steven Bannon, is likely to play a significant role in selling the new administration's infrastructure message to the public. He recently told The Hollywood Reporter that he is an “economic nationalist,” and as someone with middle class roots, he has been uniquely well-positioned to craft the president-elect’s winning theme: “Like Andrew Jackson's populism, we're going to build an entirely new political movement. It's everything related to jobs. The conservatives are going to go crazy. I'm the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it's the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Shipyards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We're just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. It will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than the Reagan revolution — conservatives, plus populists, in an economic nationalist movement.”

Jeff Sessions

And Senator Jeff Sessions — a long-time proponent of tighter trade and immigration rules — has emerged as the most influential adviser to Mr. Trump on the economy. As widely reported, Sessions has been nominated for Attorney General, and his influential former aide, Stephen Miller, as National Policy Director of the transition team. Consider the following, as Steve Bannon, recently appointed chief strategist and senior counsellor to President-elect Trump, said:

“Whether the issue was trade or immigration or radical Islam, for many years before Donald Trump came on the scene, Senator Sessions was the leader of the movement and Stephen was his right-hand man.”

On October 13, 2016, Jeff Sessions told Breitbart News Daily: "The leadership in this country has drifted globalist. They’ve lost sight of the interests of and struggles of American working people. Working people’s pleas to their government are right and just. They’re not mean and stupid. They believe in a lawful system of immigration, and that’s right and just. They believe in a system of immigration that protects their jobs and wages first, that when we have a job vacancy here, the first thing we do is give a chance to an American worker here, not bringing in someone from abroad. My goodness, who do we owe our loyalty to? So they’re right about that. They’re right to be concerned about trade. I’ve done a study on it. I’ve supported trade deals in the past, but we’ve done research: The results of these agreements are hurting the American people just like they thought when it passed. The American people never believed in these things yet the experts said we should do it and it was done by their leaders and the results are in". 

Sessions said that to make America great again, the country needs “better tougher trade deals” that “protect American manufacturing, American jobs, and higher-paying jobs.”

“And without a manufacturing base, this country can’t be healthy and strong,” Sessions said. “We are being cheated by our trading partners. This is not a free market. This is a manipulated market by our competitors who want to seek an advantage for their countries and as Donald Trump says ‘who’s negotiating for us? Who’s defending our interests?’ Nobody. And as a result we have had a decline steadily in wages for middle America since 2000. Wages for median family income are down by $100 a month. We want wages going up not down.”

In my mind, future policy plans spell out as follows. Inflation will be back and higher interest rates will follow, just as night follows day. And since the election, you have seen the Bond market agree.

As we say, it's only just begun.