On Monday

The week kicks off in Australia when Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe speaks at the Australian Payment Summit in Sydney at 9.15am AEDT. Another Reserve Bank speech follows in Sydney with Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent scheduled to talk at the Australian Securitisation Forum 2018 Conference at 2.00pm AEDT. 

On Tuesday

The regular weekly reading on consumer confidence is published by ANZ and Roy Morgan. 

On Wednesday 

The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Construction Work Done figures for the September quarter. The estimates on residential building is incorporated in the dwelling investment component of the quarter’s economic growth data. 

Construction work done rose by 1.6% in the June quarter – the sixth increase in seven quarters – but was down by 0.1% on a year ago. Strong population growth and government spending have supported a large pipeline of building activity. Construction work done in NSW and Victoria were at record highs in the June quarter. And new home building rebounded during the quarter.

Engineering project activity continues to be supported by an extensive pipeline of national public-transport related infrastructure investment through to 2025. That said, the Australian Industry Group’s Performance of Construction Index – a leading indicator – has contracted for two consecutive months (to October 2018) after 19 months of growth, signalling a loss of momentum in construction activity. 

On Thursday 

The ABS releases the Private Capital Expenditure publication (business investment figures) for the September quarter. New business investment (spending on buildings and equipment) fell by 2.5% in the June quarter to be up 0.4% over the year. Also the third estimate of investment in 2018/19 was $101.997 billion and was 1.1% lower than the third estimate for 2017/18. The 16.1% lift in expectations for 2018/19 was the second biggest increase for a June quarter in seven years – above the decade average of 124%. 

On Friday

The Reserve Bank issues the Financial Aggregates publication, a report that includes the private sector credit measure (effectively ‘loans outstanding’) for October. Tighter lending conditions have reduced home price and credit growth. Investor housing finance rose 0.1% in September with annual growth at the slowest rate on record of 1.4%, potentially reducing the risk of speculative investment lending. 

And beyond Aussie shores…

In the US the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will attract interest, while the second estimate of September quarter US economic growth dominates the data docket. Monthly activity gauges from the National Bureau of Statistics of China round out the month. 

On Monday

The week kicks off in the US when the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index is issued. And another influential manufacturing gauge from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is also released. 

On Wednesday

In the US, the second estimate of economic growth for the September quarter is released. Annual GDP growth is expected to lift to 3.6% from the ‘advance’ estimate of 3.5%. 

And weekly MBA mortgage applications, the October trade in goods data and monthly new home sales figures are issued. The purchase of new single-family homes fell by 5.5% to an annual rate of 553,000 units in September as rising mortgage rates, supply shortages and a lack of affordability crimped buyer demand. But demand is forecast to rebound by 5.3% in October following Hurricane-related disruptions. 

On Thursday

In the US, the October data on personal income and spending are released, together with weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance. But inflation measures – especially the core personal consumption deflator (excluding food and energy prices) – will be a key focus for investors. The core PCE deflator is expected to remain steady at its 2% annual target for a sixth successive month in October. 

And the Federal Reserve releases minutes of the last policy-setting meeting held over November 7-8. Analysts will be looking for anything that confirms views that a rate hike will be delivered next meeting. 

On Friday

In the US, the Chicago purchasing managers’ index for November and pending home sales data are released. And Chinese official factory and services gauges are released, rounding out the month of November.