Readers of this website may be interested to know that I have already made my predictions for the upcoming Victorian state election. They were published last Saturday in the Melbourne “Herald Sun” in their “2018 State Election Special – Victoria Votes” and my contribution appeared on page 53.

The title they gave to the article was “Andrews to return, a bit green about the gills”. It expressed my prediction that the Labor government of Daniel Andrews would win the election but would rely on five Greens members of the Legislative Assembly to be in government. There are 88 members of the lower house.

That article was accompanied by my usual “Mackerras Pendulum”, which makes it easier to describe my predictions. I cannot do that here but I shall try my best to explain it without the pendulum.

My predicted numbers are 42 for Labor and five Greens, a total of 47, that being six more than the combined conservative forces of 41 members, 32 Liberals, eight Nationals and Suzanna Sheed, the independent sitting member for Shepparton.

In the outgoing Legislative Assembly there were 46 Labor members and three Greens (in the seats of Melbourne, Northcote and Prahran), while the right-hand side had 39, 30 Liberals, eight Nationals and the Independent in Shepparton.

The five seats I predict for the Greens are Melbourne, Northcote and Prahran, retained, and Brunswick and Richmond, gained from Labor.

I am predicting that the Liberal Party will gain Bentleigh and Carrum from Labor.

Reactions I have had from e-mails suggest Labor may do better than that. Indeed most think that Labor will win outright. So far I have not had a single e-mail predicting a win for the Coalition. The basic arguments advanced are the strength of the Victorian economy and the extent to which the federal situation will damage the state Liberals.

For the Legislative Council, the best I can do is record the numbers elected in 2014. They were 14 Labor, 14 Liberals, five Greens, two Nationals, two for the Shooters and Fishers Party plus Rachel Carling-Jenkins, Fiona Patten and James Purcell. Their party descriptions defy classification beyond saying that most observers would describe their parties as “micro parties that gamed the system” to get elected to the upper house under its proportional representation system.

I have not made any prediction for the upper house result. It would be very foolish to do so in detail. However, I am willing to say this. Based on past experience, it is reasonable to predict between two and four micro-party members of the Legislative Council in the next term.

Malcolm Mackerras is Honorary Fellow of Australian Catholic University. malcolm.mackerras@acu.edu.au