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Christopher Joye
Research Expert
+ About Christopher Joye
About Christopher Joye

 

Christopher is the founder and Managing Director of the award-winning research and investment group, Rismark International, having established the business in 2003 on the basis of a landmark report he produced on affordable housing for the Australian Prime Minister's Home Ownership Task Force (read his blog here). Rismark has pioneered the development of the world’s first mass market, private sector shared equity finance program in which the lender participates in both the capital gains and wears the losses associated with home ownership without charging any interest. Since that time the initiative has won numerous industry awards and served as the basis for government-sponsored programs in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. In February 2009, Christopher was invited by the Rockefeller and MacArthur Foundations to present innovative policy solutions to America’s housing market woes based on Rismark’s experience at the private Transforming America’s Housing Policy summit for Obama Administration officials in New York. In 2009 The Australian newspaper selected Christopher as one of Australia’s top 10 “Emerging Leaders” in its economic/wealth category. In 2007 Christopher was selected by The Bulletin magazine as one of Australia's "10 Smartest CEOs" and by BRW Magazine as one of "Australia's Top 10 Innovators". He previously worked with Goldman Sachs' Investment Banking Division in Europe and Australasia. Christopher was formerly a member of the Special Projects team within the Reserve Bank of Australia's Domestic Markets Division. In 2008, the Australian Government embraced a radical policy proposal developed by Christopher and Professor Joshua Gans of Melbourne University to provide liquidity to the Australian securitisation market to mitigate the adverse effects of the 2007-2008 credit crisis. This idea was also endorsed by the Government’s 2020 Summit. Christopher served as a Director of The Menzies Research Centre, which is a leading Australian think-tank, from 2003 to 2007. He is an experienced financial economist with expertise in investments and the dynamics of the residential real estate market. He has published widely on policy matters relating to housing and financial economics. Christopher received Joint 1st Class Honours (Economics & Finance) and the University Medal in Economics & Finance from the University of Sydney, where he was a Credit Suisse First Boston Scholar, SIRCA and University Honours Scholar. He studied for a PhD at Cambridge University in 2002 and 2003, where he was a Commonwealth Trust scholarship recipient. Christopher is also a Research Affiliate with the Centre for Ideas and The Economy (CITE) at Melbourne University.

 

 

More on parsing the Australian equity risk premium

Friday, August 17, 2012

As I mentioned this week's AFR column, Professor Richard Heaney and Stephen Kidd are in the process of publishing a detailed academic study on the measurement of the 'equity risk premium puzzle' that arrives at broadly similar conclusions to those that I discussed. In a conversation with one of the authors yesterday he proposed this case-study (and the enclosed chart):



"I’ve used this simple example to illustrate how the commonly employed equity risk premium method can give counter-intuitive results. Over the period from 1980 to 2008 [ie, right after the GFC], 10 yr Commonwealth Government Securities outperformed the All Ords, in total returns. The All Ords returned 10.4 per cent, whereas bonds returned 11.4 per cent. The correctly measured equity risk premium for the period is therefore about negative 1 per cent (or negative 0.94 per cent). If I measure the risk premium using the ‘common approach’ I get a risk premium of positive 3.7 per cent! But then how can you say the ERP is positive, when I would have more money if I had invested in bonds over this period?"







Heaney and Kidd's findings correlate with my own, albeit that Heaney and Kidd are much more thoughtful in their exposition and analysis of the issue. Here's a preview:



It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the calculation of the market risk premium given regulator and practitioner reliance on the standard CAPM (Gray and Hall, 2006, 2008). There have been a number of papers appearing in the Australian finance literature since the development of the CAPM in the 1960s that provide estimates of the equity market risk premium (Brailsford et al., 2008, 2012; Officer, 1989). These generally use data spanning long time periods, often beginning in the late 1800s, but there are also studies relying on relatively short time periods (Bishop et al., 2011).

Inevitably, a quoted bond yield is used as the proxy for the risk free rate and this yield to maturity is matched against a holding period return calculated for a reasonably broad share price index like the Australian S+P/ASX200 accumulation (total returns) index. We note the lack of symmetry with this approach. While holding period rates of return are used in estimation of the equity market return, quoted yield to maturity on long lived bonds is used for the risk free rate of return.

This can lead to considerable error in average market risk premium estimates, particularly where interest rates are generally rising or falling over the estimation period. We find that this rather subtle change, from quoted yield to maturity to bond holding period rate of return, halves the average market premium estimate for the period from 4 per cent to 2 per cent per annum.

 

RBA never considered cutting 50

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Analysis of the RBA's June board minutes suggests that the central bank never considered another "super-sized" 50 basis point cut in June (as forecast by several folks and seriously countenanced by financial markets). The choice was a "finely balanced" one between no move at all and a 25 basis point cut for insurance purposes. Even very bearish houses like Westpac acknowledge that the RBA concluded there was not much basis for a cut in June on the grounds of the domestic economy's performance. 

This is comforting for me personally, as regular readers will recall that I was very much torn between no move and a 25 basis point reduction. Virtually all analysts have surmised that the RBA's June cut was "insurance" against adverse future outcomes without having the benefit of knowing what impact the preceding 100 basis points worth of cuts was having on the economy. In this context, the record shows  that the RBA cut in December for insurance reasons, noting there was no case to do so on a domestic basis.

The RBA also says it cut by a super-sized 50 points in May mainly to preserve the December reduction. That is, May was targeted at preserving a previous move motivated by the fuzzy, subjective view that something bad could happen in the future. Again, in June, we see the RBA making exactly the same argument: this was another relaxation of monetary policy rationalised in anticipation of bad things happening that have yet to transpire... 

Westpac: The Minutes to the Board meeting of June 5, which resulted in a 25bps cut in the policy rate to 3.50%, imply very strongly that a large cut was not countenanced, and that if the decision was being made solely on domestic grounds, a cut would not have been delivered. The rationale seems to have been that there were enough elements of resilience in the domestic figures for the Bank to take some time to assess the impact of past easing on activity, but that with the potential for global tensions to “intensify” precautionary behaviour, the “finely balanced” arguments turned in favour of a cut.

HSBC: Today’s minutes reiterated that the 25bp cut in June was insurance against the possible effect of weakening global conditions, which was afforded because inflation is expected to remain low. In their view, local conditions had not significantly weakened. They also told us that the RBA viewed the decision to cut rates on 5 June as ‘finely balanced’. We agree. As we noted before the meeting, our view was that local conditions did not warrant a further cut in interest rates. The minutes seem to suggest that on local conditions alone, they would probably have left rates steady. But, the cut was in response to weakening global conditions. 

ANZ: The Minutes of the RBA’s June Board meeting noted that the arguments were ‘finely balanced’ between a modest rate cut and no change in policy... Combined with recent comments by Governor Stevens, the Minutes suggest that the RBA is not in a particular hurry to ease policy further... Notably, the Minutes highlight that there had not been time to assess the effects of earlier reductions in the cash rate and that the cumulative easing to date will provide ‘a measure of stimulus…to the domestic economy over the coming months’.

Visit Christopher Joye's blog.

 

Australia has a (domestic) inflation problem

Friday, April 27, 2012

 

It is good to see all the smart commentators pointing out this issue (eg, Stutchbury, Mitchell, Verrender, etc). Australia's purportedly "low" core inflation rate, which at 2.2 per cent is actually still inside the RBA's target band (and above the target of most other central banks), has been primarily driven by the appreciation of the Australian dollar.

The rise of our trade-weighted currency has, in turn, been heavily influenced by RBA policy: the RBA has deliberately kept interest rates high in order to wrench overall inflation back into its target band, and it has not intervened against the currency's rise. More specifically, the RBA has relentlessly outlined the benefits of a high currency, and how the appreciating currency is the key medium through which Australia can have a resources boom without high inflation for the first time in its recorded history. Now think about the consequences of reversing that logic, as Paul Howes and other doves would have us do.

If you compare inflation in "domestic" goods and services (called "non-tradeables") with inflation in so-called "tradeables", which are those goods and services that the ABS defines as having their prices determined in global markets, you will see that almost all of the reduction in Australian inflation is being accounted for by these global consumer prices (refer to the blue line in the chart below). In contrast, inflation in non-tradeables (ie, domestic items) remains both way above the RBA's 2-3 per cent per annum target, and in line with its average rate since December 2001.


This is where the debate about Australian interest rates and inflation becomes so incredibly silly and circular. All those arguing for much lower interest rates, and a much lower currency, are, by definition, rooting for higher tradeables inflation. A big fall in the currency will reverse out a lot of the deflationary benefits you can see in the blue, tradeables line slumping in the chart below. And without that tradeables deflation we would likely have an overall inflation challenge. This problem is accentuated by the fact that the reason "tradeables" inflation was low during much of the 2000s was because our key trading partners were flooding global markets with cheap goods--effectively exporting deflation. This is no longer happening. As the RBA has noted (and I have argued about for years here), China is now a source of inflation for Australia rather than disinflation.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

Koukie forecasts 50bp or possibly 75p cut in May

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The ALP economist and former contributor to this blog, Stephen Koukoulas, reckons given the spectre of deflation we will get a 50 basis point cut in May, and possibly 75.

On Twitter, he responded to the CPI data commenting, "here comes 50 or even 75", and then, "RBA must cut 50".

I guess anything is possible, but at this stage I think 25 is much more probable. Sudden cash rate cuts actually create profitability problems for bank treasuries (if you speak to them about this issue), which have locked in a lot of their funding via fixed retail term deposits and wholesale debt...

And then there is the question of what the budget actually looks like.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

Credit where it is due...

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

While a lot of analysts got February, March and April wrong, and a low core CPI print this quarter was widely anticipated (including the downside surprise), some have been much closer to the mark about the ultimate direction of rates since around the second half of last year.

These include Bill Evans at Westpac, Tim Toohey at Goldman, Brian Redican at Macquarie, and even my Labor buddy, Stephen Koukoulas (who used to contribute to this blog under a pseudonym while he was in his old job working for Gillard). And my inflation-forecasting "strategist" (cannot be named) got his point estimate and distribution right, although I reckon this was one of the easier quarters to do so.

But, as I noted above, calling it correctly month-to-month has been a much more difficult task. And while a "cut" in May after the RBA jawboning and now the low CPI is certain, actually predicting what the RBA does is more challenging. For example, as I discuss in detail below, much speculation will brew on whether the RBA goes 25 or 50. Right now, I am with the former.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

Inflation cheat sheet: what it means for rates in May

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

With so much talk about tomorrow's ABS inflation data, and the potential ramifications this will have for the RBA's rates decision at its May Board meeting, I thought I would pull together my own "cheat sheet".

In brief, this guide combines the March quarter "core" inflation numbers with the inflation measured over the preceding three quarters to give a March 2012 year-on-year result. The RBA has become increasingly wary of historical revisions to the ABS's underlying inflation data (known as the "trimmed mean" and "weighted median"), and is likely to place significant emphasis on the broader results over the last six and 12 months.

By way of background, the RBA has worked hard to prepare the public and financial markets for a cut in May subject to the outcome of the March price data. Predicting a cut if inflation prints low is easy. The much more difficult challenge was anticipating the RBA's decision to hold rates steady in February, March, and April, which caught some experts unawares.

Of the 22 economists polled by Bloomberg (I have also added in the ALP's Stephen Koukoulas), none are predicting an especially high core ("trimmed mean") inflation print: the maximum quarterly estimate is 0.7 per cent from Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, and Nomura (see first chart below). At least seven economists are expecting a relatively low core inflation number of 0.5 per cent. Given the currency appreciation, declining import prices, weak producer prices, and various surveys pointing to benign retail prices, it's possible that inflation is assessed to be even lower than 0.5 per cent.

Of course, the flipside of this coin would be an upside surprise. Nobody is projecting inflation breaching the top of the RBA's target two to three per cent per annum band in the March quarter. A positive "surprise" would be anything greater than 0.7 per cent.

It is also interesting to observe that the economists' year-on-year expectations are all universally anodyne. Only two houses (Credit Suisse and Nomura) are predicting that the 12 monthly result with hit the mid-point of the RBA's target band at 2.5 per cent, which is where the RBA believes inflation currently stands.

Every other forecaster has a year-on-year number below the mid-point of the target band, which opens the door to RBA rate cuts. A curveball here is substantial revisions to the third and fourth quarter data from last year, which could mean that even with a soft first quarter number year-on-year inflation stays at or above the mid-point of the RBA's band.

The question is then what all of this means for what the RBA (or, more precisely, its Board) decide to do in May. I've taken the RBA's latest estimates of core inflation in Australia over 2011 and combined these with a range of hypothetical outcomes in March. I've then offered up my own opinion of what the RBA might do – subject to global events, revisions to past data, and changes to bank lending rates – in the far right-hand-side column.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

In 2009 Swan said it was "absurd and wrong" to link fiscal policy to RBA's cash rate

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Australian has been (justifiably) on the warpath highlighting the inconsistencies in the Gillard Government's attempts to jawbone the RBA into lower rates on the back of promises of tighter fiscal policy:

What was once labelled 'absurd' is now government policy in Wayne Swan's world

The Australian April 22, 2012 12:19PM

WAYNE Swan has been forced to defend the government's stance that returning the budget to surplus will allow the Reserve Bank more room to move on interest rates.

Mr Swan was challenged this morning about comments he made in 2009, saying it was "absurd and wrong" to link fiscal policy and the official cash rate.

Mr Swan said this morning conditions in 2009, when the government was rolling out its stimulus measures, were "completely different" to now and that a projected surplus of $1.5 billion in 2012/13 would allow the RBA greater flexibility to lower rates if it chose to do so.

Last week Julia Gillard delivered a speech to a business audience in Perth in which she put the onus on the RBA to cut interest rates to boost struggling sectors of the economy. She also directly tied the surplus to any future rate cuts by the central bank.

"There is plenty of room for the RBA to move further (on rates) if need be, and to all those calling for rate cuts, you should also be calling for a surplus not opposing one," Ms Gillard said...

Professor McKibbin said..."This government has been promising big budget cuts for the last three years and hasn't delivered...So the bank won't be acting on what is promised, the bank will be looking to see what is done."

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

How one of world's biggest banks took PM Gillard's comments on RBA

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

While one rabid ALP economist tries to argue that when the PM publicly seeks easier monetary policy she is not looking for lower interest rates, and conveniently ignores the fact that this was precisely the briefing given by the PM's office to none other than the AFR's Laura Tingle, here is the objective assessment of one of the world's biggest banks in a note to clients:

“Meanwhile, in Australia, some attention has been directed to a speech by PM Gillard in Perth. Initial briefing before the speech suggested a surplus by 2012/13 would give the RBA more room to cut rates. That line seemed to be politically motivated, since there is absolutely nothing about the current setting of fiscal policy that is preventing the RBA from cutting rates. A particularly harsh contraction in fiscal policy might convince the RBA to cut rates in an effort to balance the impact of monetary and fiscal policy. But that’s not the same thing as giving the RBA room to cut rates. The PM has since retreated a little, softened her language and reiterated the RBA’s independence.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

Economists gear up for downside surprise to Aussie inflation data

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

With the combination of very weak import and producer prices, most economists are now flagging the risk of a significant downside surprise to the already low consensus forecast of about 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent in Q1 (and hence a cut in May and possibly June). In fact, I have not seen anybody talking of upside risks at this juncture. Here are Citi's comments, which capture the dovish expectations neatly:

The downward surprise on the PPI result suggests that there is downside risk to the consensus CPI forecast of 0.6 per cent. Over the past two years, surprises in the quarterly PPI have tracked reasonably well with subsequent surprises in the quarterly CPI. Today’s PPI surprise is the largest downside surprise since June 2009...

Important PPI components also argue for a soft Q1 CPI result. Food prices (down 1.1 per cent) and house construction (flat) were weaker than in Q4. These items do map over reasonably well to CPI, which suggests that there is unlikely to be an upward risk to the CPI from these items. Utilities like electricity, gas and water were higher (up 2.1 per cent), but the increase was close enough to our forecast for this item not to bias up our CPI forecast of 0.6 per cent. Tobacco product manufacturing increased strongly (up 7.8 per cent), but the seasonal adjustment mechanism should moderate such any similarly strong reading in the headline CPI, while such a large increase is likely to be trimmed out of the underlying CPI measure...

The PPI result sets up the medium-term inflation picture as one that is favourable for the RBA. Should tomorrow's underlying CPI result be benign (we say it will), then the question becomes can the RBA even consider something like a 50 bp cut in May or back-to-back cuts to get ahead of the inflation curve?

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

Brilliant, must-read column by AFR's Bassanese taking on Paul Howes over RBA

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Wow, this was a smoking column that I missed from the AFR's David Bassanese. It's certainly one of the best he's written. If you want to understand the political-economics swirling around the RBA right now (despite near full employment and average lending rates), read this.

Blind Freddy can see this has been a coordinated campaign by the Gillard Government in concert with unionistas like Paul Howes and Garry Weaven to apply public pressure on the RBA to relax monetary policy to help the Government score political points for its 8 May budget. The crazy thing is that they didn't need to do it given the RBA was all set to cut rates in May so long as it got a benign CPI. The risk, in fact, is that these shameful efforts to undermine the credibility of Australia's central bank (see Bass below) could be counter-productive. It is not inconceivable that the bank decides to dig in…

Here it's opportune to remind the ALP economist and reflexive Gillard apologist, Stephen Koukoulas, of Laura Tingle's exact words last week following a private briefing from the Prime Minister's office on Gillard's speech:

"Prime Minister Julia Gillard will today aggressively link her budget surplus goal directly to lower interest rates, saying that the Reserve Bank of Australia has “plenty of room” to cut its 4.25 per cent cash rate...

In effect putting the political success of next month’s budget into the hands of the Reserve Bank board, Ms Gillard will say that the large interest rate differential between Australia and offshore markets gives the RBA “plenty of room to move further if need be”."

Tingle is no fool, and normally sympathetic to the Labor cause. But her independent assessment of Gillard's intent of "putting the political success of next month’s budget into the hands of the Reserve Bank board" is clear to all but the intellectually incapacitated.

Anyway, back to the analysis of the Harvard-educated, David Bassanese, which is a must-read:

Hands off the RBA’s mandate
PUBLISHED: 20 APR 2012 14:30:44
DAVID BASSANESE

If investors need a reminder of how inflation was allowed to ratchet up in the 1970s – wiping out billions in sharemarket and property wealth and eventually requiring a wrenching recession to bring it under control – they need look no further than at some of the silly utterances from certain trade union officials, fund managers and even academics in the past week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s failure to cut interest rates last month – a decision I disagree with – has led to suggestions the bank is too focused on inflation and should pay more attention to unemployment and the exchange rate.

In the vanguard of this criticism was the grandstanding head of the Australian Workers Union, Paul Howes, who ventured: “I’ve been wondering now for the last couple of months, do we have the charter right for the RBA?”

He went on: “The RBA’s obviously got a charter to deal with inflation. We know the importance of that. But they have the most ability to impact on the Australian dollar. We believe very strongly that they need to cut rates to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.”

As if that were not enough, Industry Funds Management chairman Garry Weaven – an ex-union official – also reckons the RBA’s inflation focus is excessive.

He argued: “Consistently now for many years the Reserve has had far too much focus on inflation only and not enough on employment and economic prosperity generally, which is their requirement under the act.”

Considering the economy is close to full employment, with an unemployment rate of only 5.2 per cent, it’s an amazing observation by someone I thought knew better.

Let’s not forget Australia’s history of mining booms has not been great. They’ve usually generated an inflation blowout, pushing the economy into recession just as the mining boom goes bust. Yet in the past decade we’ve endured the biggest mining boom in our history at a time when the economy was already stretched due to the debt-financed property and consumer boom. So far we’ve managed to keep inflation pretty much under control, allowing our economic expansion to continue – albeit at a more moderate and sustainable pace.
Despite much bleating, the high exchange rate has helped us manage and spread the benefits of the mining boom in a way rarely seen in the past. By lowering international competitiveness, it has dampened demand and inflation pressures in non-mining trade exposed sectors. And by lowering import prices, it has boosted real household incomes that do not directly benefit from sky-high export commodity prices.

What really floored me in the week was Bob Gregory, a distinguished economics professor, also suggesting the RBA’s agreement with the government should be tweaked.

Speaking on the ABC’s 7.30 Report Gregory said: “I think the next letter that is written [between the government and the RBA] should be a bit more neutral. I mean I don’t think it should say, ‘forget about inflation, focus on unemployment,’ it just should be a bit more neutral.”

And he added: “I don’t think anybody that you and I think highly of thinks that any bank should fight inflation first.”

Come again? The move to explicit central bank inflation targets has probably been the single best economic reform across most of the developed world in the past 20 years. It has helped lower inflation expectations and interest rates, and improved the ability of businesses to plan for the future.

So much so that even the United States Federal Reserve has only recently belatedly adopted an explicit inflation target.

What’s more, economic theory tells us that there’s no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment – the latter is set by structural factors such as job skills and work incentives. The best contribution that monetary policy can make to long-term economic growth is ensuring inflation is not allowed to get out of hand.

I believe central banks should fight inflation first. Having a long-term target provides a framework to formulate and explain interest rate decisions. Effectively, the RBA sets interest rates today at a level it considers most likely to achieve inflation of between two and three per cent over the next two to three years.

That’s clearly a judgement call, and the RBA’s agreement with the government gives it considerable discretion in how it pursues this target.

Current trends in economic growth, unemployment and the exchange rate figure prominently in the RBA’s deliberations.

All up, while it’s reasonable to disagree with the RBA’s month-to-month judgements, it’s another matter altogether to suggest its framework is wrong and should be changed. That’s a slippery slope.

If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.

For advice you can trust book a complimentary first appointment with Switzer Financial Planning today.

Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

 

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The explain-away-inflation fiasco

Is the RBA breaking its own rules?

Higher interest rates good news for net savers!

The two charts that give Glenn Stevens heart palpitations and explain why rates are gonna rise

Terry McCrann puts his reputation behind a Tuesday rate hike

Inflation talk around the web and that question of quarterly numbers

RBA to hike interest rates at least one or two times in 2011

Rory Robertson smashes Rob Burgess and Steve Keen

RBA Gov tells us to expect lower disposable income, credit and asset price growth

Who are the property losers?

Has my view on inflation and interest rates changed?

More upside risk to Aussie bonds and the AUD?

Cannibalising capitalism

Imagine non-linearities like the Aussie dollar at 150 US cents

What percentage of all Australians buy and sell homes for a loss?

Auctions sold – is the housing market finding a belated base?

Key inflexion point in Aussie rates debate

Turnbull to run Gillard's $10-billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation?

Where is the cost/benefit analysis on the timing of a carbon tax?!

Is the Aussie dollar becoming a global reserve currency?

How well can Rismark forecast local-area house prices 18 months out?

RBA reveals taxpayers directly subsidise Aussie banks

Is it riskier lending to businesses or households?

The US Government is trying to reduce the price of oil

Hawks are few and far between for the time being

The RBA is not a pre-emptive central bank

Macquarie: RBA losing credibility with financial markets

Auctions point to a freezing housing market

Are consumers getting too much financial information?

Does ABS run electronic counter-surveillance?

The secret to winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup

The other side of the ABS insider trading story

Median Sydney dwelling prices are not $634,000

Who had access to the ABS unemployment numbers before the release?

In a world of lonely wolves, ‘tis safer to be feared than loved

Terry McCrann calls July, then maybe June, or July, or not!

Will the RBA be too smart by half? Maybe

Luxury home sector getting slammed

Very, very worrying signs – exploding wages growth in GDP data, says ANZ

The most effective tool for cutting global poverty: immigration

What's Malcolm Turnbull up to?

What share of their disposable income do Aussies dedicate to servicing their home loans?

How are those 'sky-rocketing' default rates affecting Aussie banks?

The Oz has a go at the ABC for bias

The Aussie shares sham

What will happen to China between now and 2025?

RBA Deputy Governor once again denudes housing hysterics

Willem Buiter expects strong global growth

What is actually happening to Australian house prices?

Where are all those 'housing repo's' taking place, eh?

Random 'rumourtrage' for Aussie policy boffins

More proposals to politicise central banks

Aussie shares: the mother of all dud investments

Krugman proposes lifting inflation target/dumping headline inflation/dumping core inflation

RBA's positive central case is firming up

Why UK and US output gaps might be bogus

Britain’s intensifying inflation nightmare

What happens when a central bank consistently misses its inflation target?

Silly housing data debates Mk V

More good wages/inflation news for the RBA (sort of)

A taste of things to come: the cries of stockbrokers feeling the pain

RBA Board in disarray

Devastating UBS critique of Howard/Costello fiscal policy

What's changed since the RBA’s May meeting?

RBA Minutes flag higher interest rates (as expected)

Where to for Australia's housing market?

Rise and fall of the Aussie dollar

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia do its job?

Did the US government short oil prices?

Unemployment holds at 4.85 per cent, but June hike fading fast

Aussie dollar rallies on back of neutral Budget

Bloxham brutalises bloated budget

Views on rates and the Budget

Budget not tough enough to stop a June/July hike

RBA message: government needs to get out of the way

Houston: we have an inflation expectations problem

Why this budget is an inflationary time bomb

Unions to make major wage claims before next election

RBA paves the way for a June hike

Disappointing attack on Glenn Stevens

The case of prudent and disinflationary fiscal policy

RBA to ignore budget and hike in June, says SMH and The Australian

RBA hawks soar with intent

RBA rate rises ahead?

Happy days - no rate hikes priced for 2011, Aussie dollar falling like a stone

Do the financial markets think the RBA is serious about fighting inflation?

Is the Reserve Bank Board biased towards low interest rates?

What should the RBA do about the Aussie dollar?

Did Ken Henry argue for a zero per cent interest rate during the GFC?

Minimum wages incorporating headline inflation

House prices going nowhere, as we forecast

RBA pay levels are fine

Why the RBA will hike in next three months

ANZ: ‘pure inflation targeting central bank’ would hike in May

On mining taxes and sovereign wealth funds

Did Asians cause the GFC? I don't think so

Australian inflation pressures soar (our biggest hawk vindicated!)

Forecasting CPI using producer prices

Producer prices surge and consumer component registers huge increase

UBS says ‘get shorty’

Oh dear – now Canada has a serious inflation challenge

Import prices surge 1.4 per cent in Q1

RBA Minutes signal that every meeting is now ‘live’

Why banks should ape Apple

Big week for RBA watchers

Good and bad news for RBA on consumer inflation expectations

Lower our inflation target to 2% per annum and get better outcomes

When was the last new entrant into Australian retail banking?

Australia's most hawkish economists calls on RBA to hike rates

Housing market groundhog day

What is the flipside of Chindia's industrialisation?

RBA Governor deserves every cent he gets

McKibbin's ZIRP-inflation thesis getting traction overseas

Rearing RBA babies

The question of the curious AUD-rates nexus

House prices flat in February

RBA Board machinations

Silly debates around house price-to-income ratios

Why The Economist is wrong on Aussie housing

Treasury “strongly urges” full financial system inquiry in Government's second term

Idea for Brett Clegg when marketing the AFR...

Growth-stability trade-off

My inflation expectations thesis confirmed by PIMCO

Counter-intuitive Aussie housing facts

Aussie central bank once again having kittens about inflation expectations

Australian consumer risk-aversion and inflation expectations

RBA shows that Aussie borrowers getting much less risky

Why our economic growth statistics are misleading

No house price bubble, says ex 12-year RBA veteran

Certainty and confidence beget uncertainty and volatility

The US economy continues its slow march to recovery

Consumers start spending again... but for how long?

Inflation expectations (again)

RBA’s Debelle on the mark

When can we expect a rate hike?

Westpac on housing market prospects and RP Data-Rismark

RBA releases research on inflation expectations

Are females systematically more negative than males?

Global economy spinning round and round, round and round...

Insights from RBA Governor abroad

Will oil prices start to turn if Gaddafi does a deal and the US releases SR?

The demise of inflation targeting?

Richard Farleigh's 'Taming the Lion'

Why do Australians love talking about interest rates?

Auction clearance rates continue to surprise on the upside

Is it me or is the world getting more volatile?

One thing the RBA should definitely not do …

Idea for those that want to make name for themselves as a policy guru

HSBC's Bloxham confirms my blog’s parsing …

Is this the perfect inflationary storm?

Insights from Global Macro guys...

Big bounce back in auction clearance rates

Australian inflation will decouple from the Western world...

Ross 'RBA' Gittins now beating the interest rate drums...

Did the advent of the telephone depersonalise communications?

Is the NBN an end in itself?

Once again, Steve Keen gets it wrong …

You know you have a cost of living problem when Ross Gittins claims otherwise

Is interest rate volatility a recent innovation?

China is bigger than you think

RBA remains on war-footing

The iconoclast’s take on the RBA’s multiple-personality disorder

How do house price and disposable income growth compare since 2003?

The Economist: NBN costs taxpayers 24 times South Korea at one-tenth speed

Embrace online: my advice to Fairfax’s Greg Hywood

Recent RBA movements under the microscope

Haslem bats the hawks back – well, at least two quarters or so

Australia’s perturbing productivity puzzle

Screech, screech – the sound of swooping RBA hawks

Watch out for a wages breakout

Three other heterodox thoughts on the RBA

Does Australia have an inflation bias (and the paradox of good monetary policy)?

Aussie dwelling values tread water in December

What is the Treasurer really saying about the RBA Board?

Ross Gittins tells us to get ready for higher interest rates

US recovery is joker in pack for RBA policy

Happy days for the housing market

On the government’s flood tax

One of the best in the business gives us his take on rates

Two steps forward, one step back

What today’s inflation numbers mean for mums and dads – a dummies guide

OECD gives Aussie housing market a mixed report-card

Where to for China (and Sorosian reflexivity)?

The post-GFC central banking challenge

Inflation nation: UK inflation spikes

Who owns Facebook?

ANZ forecast more than three per cent core inflation through to 2013

Four more rate hikes, according to Blocker

New Zealand house prices p… weak

Will Gillard/Swan politicise the RBA and undermine its credibility?

Headline inflation pressures rising – will core CPI follow?

Rates market spooked momentarily by floods

It would be a stunning surprise if …

Inflation watch – is the labour market at or near full employment?

On social capital and inequality

Why Wayne Swan should appoint a female academic to the RBA Board

Big balls call of the day – UBS’s Matty Johnson

House prices taper further in November – no capital growth since March 2010

Judith Sloan vs. the banks: who is right?

Auction clearance rate dipping on seasonal slow-down

RBA’s reform appetite is too weak … but there is hope

Population + immigration growth falling through floor

Why we don’t understand China …

Will China’s demand for Australian iron core and coal continue to grow?

Why have Aussie utility prices been rising so rapidly?

The doomsday code that explains The Oz’s psychoses

The Australian’s war on everything

Taxpayers to support deposit-taking institutions

Best and worst calls of 2010

Global growth on the charts

Four common mistakes in the banking debate

Summary analysis of the Gillard Government’s new banking reforms

A good idea: taking all credit out of the OTC domain

Ross Gittins slaps me (and Adam Carr) down for doing the right thing!

Have some faith in this RBA …

The RBA’s challenge

Economists have consistently underestimated Chinese growth

Australian housing market’s valuation improves, amid 2011 deflation forecast

Volatility is a good thing

ABS makes huge upward revisions to household incomes

Auction clearance rate snorkelling …

RBA’s Guy Debelle favours direct investments in RMBS over guarantees

RBA evolves its approach to monetary policy

Housing heading towards dead-zone

Auction clearance rate falls below 50 per cent

Aussie banks have $4 billion of exposure to Irish banks

Your choice: higher inflation or a higher exchange rate?

Dr Stephen Kirchner on the RBA’s contorted supply-side logic

Housing going nowhere

Private wages accelerate – and it was not driven by the minimum wage decision

Dr Stephen Nash on taxing those too big to fail

Banking system’s profit margins rising back to all-time highs

Surprise at “less hawkish” RBA minutes?

GMO’s Jeremy Grantham reaches out

An eye on the data

Dwelling prices decline in Q3

RBS on bank spreads, market shares and liability mix

Revolutionising risk management

Could inflation stay lower for longer?

Affordability improves as city values flat-line

Jeremy Grantham gets it wrong

Are financial markets good predictors of long-term inflation?

The difference between higher interest repayments and housing affordability

Establishing the people’s bank

RBA speeches and NAB insights

Selwyn Cornish’s history of Australian central banking

The relationship between public debt and interest rates

Will 2010 be 2006-07 redux?

Why the RBA didn’t hike …

What happens when the RBA lifts rates by 0.25 per cent?

RBA will not bail out failing banks

Financial stability speech

RBA changes communications strategy

Some of the best RBA analysis going around – system stability

House prices do not inexorably rise

How risky is your home?